Waste Connections delivered a broad third-quarter advance, with revenue of $2.638 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $895.8 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.58. The quarter strengthened the operating record, but the mix behind that progress matters as much as the headline growth.
Core pricing was 5.5%, with another 1.3% from fuel and material surcharges, while unit volume declined 1.2%. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 34% despite a late-quarter diesel surge. Special waste increased 7% and construction and demolition debris increased 5%, showing firmer landfill activity even though companywide volume was still negative. The central tension is straightforward: improved efficiency must keep offsetting uneven demand without obscuring the difference between project strength and broad volume recovery.
For 2026, management now anticipates revenue of about $10.09 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $3.345 billion. Its adjusted free cash flow range is $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion. The year-to-date figure was $1.09 billion, making fourth-quarter conversion an important test of whether the improved quarter carries through the full year.
The market responded immediately. WCN closed at $184.88 on October 22, up from $168.28 on October 21, with more than 5.3 million shares traded. Because the market record contains a contradiction in the October 22 open and low, the completed closes and volume provide the cleaner reference points.
The next phase of the story rests on breadth and durability. Management said it was too early to assume the landfill-volume improvement would continue, and noted that project activity can remain sensitive to interest rates and fuel costs. February's formal 2027 outlook should clarify whether the preliminary revenue framework and expected adjusted free cash flow per share growth remain intact.
The full Waste Connections premium review examines the broader evidence, including operating resilience, cash conversion and what the October repricing asks of future execution.
Market analysis, not personalized investment advice.