In today’s Morning Coffee Brief we find yesterday’s U.S. equity markets saw its first day controlled by the bulls on bullish global data most notable from Germany’s export data report. The report indicates export levels not seen since the crisis started in 2008.
Crude oil continued its bearish tone once again last week, closing the oil trading session on Friday at $94.61 per barrel for the December futures contract. With the fundamental picture now calming, the technical element is taking center stage, and in the last few weeks crude oil has breached several key levels, as outlined in previous posts.
The WTI September crude oil futures contract is now building into an interesting phase of price action, and in many ways is mirroring a similar period between May and July 2013, where the commodity oscillated between $92 per barrel to the downside and $98 per barrel to the upside, before finally breaking out.
Morning Coffee Break – Tuesday April 2 April what is thought of being a strong month historically began the month and second quarter at a slow snail pace. The Dow and the bulls have look to April as the best month of the year as far back as 1950 with an average 2.7% gain for the month.
May crude oil futures continued to climb higher once again in yesterday’s trading session, closing at $96.51 per barrel, with a narrow spread up candle with wicks to both top and bottom on the daily chart.
Morning Coffee Break – Wednesday March 27 Today’s Morning Coffee Break is finding U.S. equity futures are indicating a lower open this morning after yesterday’s push higher towards an all-time high of less than two points in the S&P 500.
Crude oil futures started the week in bullish tone, with the April WTI contract closing higher at $94.81 per barrel, up almost $1.50 in the session, and ending with a wide spread up candle, but with a small wick to the upper body. Nevertheless, despite the upper shadow, sentiment for crude oil remains firmly bullish, and yesterday’s oil trading session gave us some strong signals for the next few days.
It was deja vu all over again for the oil markets yesterday, as both WTI and Brent made small losses within inside-day trading ranges. The incremental information in yesterday’s session basically included pressure from weak oil demand and increasing worries about the upcoming German local elections, while support came from increased speculation about accommodative monetary policies in Japan and China
WTI is showing difficulty in trading above the $94.00/bbl price level, while Brent is doing the same near $113.00/bbl. The oil markets may continue to remain range-bound in the near-term, as influencing factors are somewhat mixed. The upside will focus on improving economic data, buying by managed money accounts, and fresh refinery issues with Motiva
The oil market may remain in a mixed trend in the near-term as it has in the last three sessions, with underlying factors somewhat balanced. Recent support has been given by improved signs of economic growth, COT data, the grounding of Shell’s oil rig in Alaska, and the ramp-up of the expanded Seaway pipeline this week. Environmental groups have already called on the president to suspend drilling permits in the Arctic
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