Morning Coffee Break – Tuesday April 2 April what is thought of being a strong month historically began the month and second quarter at a slow snail pace. The Dow and the bulls have look to April as the best month of the year as far back as 1950 with an average 2.7% gain for the month.
May crude oil futures continued to climb higher once again in yesterday’s trading session, closing at $96.51 per barrel, with a narrow spread up candle with wicks to both top and bottom on the daily chart.
Morning Coffee Break – Wednesday March 27 Today’s Morning Coffee Break is finding U.S. equity futures are indicating a lower open this morning after yesterday’s push higher towards an all-time high of less than two points in the S&P 500.
Crude oil futures started the week in bullish tone, with the April WTI contract closing higher at $94.81 per barrel, up almost $1.50 in the session, and ending with a wide spread up candle, but with a small wick to the upper body. Nevertheless, despite the upper shadow, sentiment for crude oil remains firmly bullish, and yesterday’s oil trading session gave us some strong signals for the next few days.
It was deja vu all over again for the oil markets yesterday, as both WTI and Brent made small losses within inside-day trading ranges. The incremental information in yesterday’s session basically included pressure from weak oil demand and increasing worries about the upcoming German local elections, while support came from increased speculation about accommodative monetary policies in Japan and China
WTI is showing difficulty in trading above the $94.00/bbl price level, while Brent is doing the same near $113.00/bbl. The oil markets may continue to remain range-bound in the near-term, as influencing factors are somewhat mixed. The upside will focus on improving economic data, buying by managed money accounts, and fresh refinery issues with Motiva
The oil market may remain in a mixed trend in the near-term as it has in the last three sessions, with underlying factors somewhat balanced. Recent support has been given by improved signs of economic growth, COT data, the grounding of Shell’s oil rig in Alaska, and the ramp-up of the expanded Seaway pipeline this week. Environmental groups have already called on the president to suspend drilling permits in the Arctic
The short-term trend of the energy markets has been on the upside for nearly a month now, but prices are approaching levels that have traditionally caused problems for rallies. The weekly chart below suggests that WTI may be able reach the falling trendline near $101/bbl without creating any appearance of excess, however, demand would then become a concern as rationing will eventually return
Our view of the oil markets is generally unchanged today from the outlook we made yesterday. Prices could continue higher over the next week or so, but we remain cautious about the ability of the rally being maintained.
2013 Energy Outlook – Despite the relatively sideways trading range and declining volatility that the last few months of 2012 has brought the oil markets, underlying developments have remained fairly dynamic. The November election in the U.S. and change of power in China
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