MOH Research Note — Medical Costs Stay Unresolved

CAMS — MOH Research Note August 3, 2026
CAMS — MOH Research Note August 3, 2026

Molina Healthcare's earnings beat did not repair the medical-cost thesis. Adjusted earnings reached $1.51 against a $1.37 estimate and management raised full-year guidance to $5.25. Yet the consolidated medical-cost ratio worsened to 92.2% from 90.4% a year earlier.

ACA membership fell 57%, from 655,000 to 283,000, and the company plans to reduce its 2027 footprint from 14 states to six. Medicaid and Medicare are steadier, but the shares remain below the 50-day average near $206.45 while health care is only a mid-pack sector in the current rotation.

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