Gold's longer-term demand story remains credible, but GLD's structure on the research date argued for patience. Price was below key trend measures, momentum remained weak, and a firm dollar with elevated real yields kept the tactical backdrop defensive.
The thesis is not that gold's structural case has failed. It is that the market had not yet supplied enough confirmation to justify chasing the setup. A durable improvement in trend, participation, and momentum would strengthen the constructive case; renewed weakness through established support would keep the outlook defensive. The key risk is a macro crosscurrent in which central-bank demand supports gold while policy expectations and real yields continue to pressure it.
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