Index futures, the overnight tape, and the calendar that matters today.
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This is the CAMS Morning Market Brief for Wednesday, July 29.
The market is waking up to the main event of the week. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today, with the rate decision due tomorrow afternoon, and the early tape looks like a market content to wait. S&P futures are essentially flat this morning, sitting near 7,460. Nasdaq futures are unchanged as well. The soft spot is the Dow, with futures there down about seven tenths of a percent, while Russell 2000 futures are off about two tenths.
That caution follows a split session yesterday. The Dow gained more than one percent while the Nasdaq 100 fell close to one percent, a clear rotation day. Money moved toward the defensive corners of the market: health care rose more than two percent, consumer staples nearly two, and communications close to that. On the other side, technology dropped almost two percent, energy fell more than one, and industrials slipped. Seven of the eleven sectors closed higher, so breadth was better than the tech-heavy indexes suggested.
Volatility is edging up rather than breaking out. The VIX sits near eighteen and a half, up around two and a half percent, which reads as caution ahead of the Fed rather than fear.
Beyond the Fed, the calendar is quiet, so rate expectations and headlines from the meeting are likely to set the tone into tomorrow's decision.
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