Energy Price Outlook The oil market is expected to eventually make a move above the top end of the past week’s consolidation pattern in a more decisive manner than yesterday’s intraday “breakout.” We think that fund selling which has been prevalent in the last few weeks could diminish as many hedge funds closed their books throughout late-Oct. Support may also come from the restart of Northeast refineries, technical factors,
The oil market appears to be locked in a sideways continuation pattern, however, the timing of a potential breakout may still hinge upon the trading floors opening for normal operations. The CME said late yesterday that Nymex floor trading would resume only when the city lifts its evacuation order for Zone A.
Today’s session will likely be muted again by the closure of trading pits in New York, but we expect moderate pressure to remain in place. The market may be setting up for weakness through tomorrow, when many hedge funds are expected to close their books for the year.
This week’s trade in the oil market may witness bottoming action take place, as the U.S. election begins to move to center stage. There may also be an exit from the markets by hedge funds that close their books on Oct 31st, but the impact they actually exert may be somewhat limited in the near-term as their long positioning has already been reduced.
The oil market stabilized its short-term selloff yesterday and rebounded slightly, but evidence is unclear as to whether a bottom has been formed. The action was not typical of a bottom, as volumes appeared to be light and fresh economic data was mixed.
The oil market may continue its short-term correction in the near-term, but it’s also entering a support range between
$81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs exited the market during Monday’s session.
Oil prices may continue their short-term correction over the next few days, with support in WTI offered between $81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs have exited the market. A focus will be on the FOMC announcement today, but little change in policy is expected after the last meeting’s implementation of QE3.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Morning Coffee Break – Yesterday’s rally of triple digits on the Dow Jones Industrial and over 14 points in the S&P 500 has put U.S. markets back in the green for the month of October, just 8 session before Friday’s 25th anniversary of the 1987 stock crash.
The weak tone of yesterday’s session indicates that oil prices may move toward the lower end of the two-week consolidation near $89.00 in the near-term. Focus will be on DOE inventories and ADP payrolls today, which may offer modest pressure. Pressure could also come from a lack of investment moving into energy markets at the start of Q4, concerns over global growth, and a slow pace of reform in Spain and Greece. Support may be found from favorable car sales reported yesterday, and relative strength in the euro. We’d look for prices to test support at $88.95 (Sep 26th low) over the next few days.
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