Morning Coffee Break

Welcome to Friday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. futures are moving lower on the last day of the week and quarter on fears from the Euro Zone fears and U.S. economic data. After mix data from the U.S. economic calendar traders are looking towards Consumer Income, Spending and Sentiment reports.CurveAheadMarketStrategies.com Morning Coffee Break

In yesterday’s session U.S. equities rocketed higher snapping a five session losing streak in the S&P 500 on optimism over Spain’s budget details and austerity plan. The austerity program contracted on spending cuts rather than of tax hikes.  U.S. data yesterday was mixed but markets latched onto the positive data on the U.S. jobs.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fair value – 13364.0 (-41.97)

S&P 500, futures fair value – 1436.2001 ( -4.6)

NASDAQ Composite futures fair value – 2807.75 ( -6.95)

Morning Coffee Break Global Markets Watch

Asia

The majority of Asian markets end the final day of trading of the third quarter in the green on the headlines of the Spanish budget proposal.  Market participants’ sentiment remains positive that China’s policymakers will act to support the Chinese economy adding a bid under markets.

China’s beings its week long holiday this weekend in which China’s stock market will be closed all of next week. Hong Kong markets will be closed through Tuesday and reopen on Wednesday.

Asian’s quarterly performance ended on positive on note with strong advanced in many of the regional markets.

Third Quarter Performance – for Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan ended the quarter with gains between 5.7% and 7.7%.  However, China’s and Japan’s stock markets lost ground in the third quarter.  China lost 6.3% on the quarter while Japan lost 1.5% for the same period.

Euro Zone

Euro zone equities markets began broadly in the green in early trading, just one day after Spain’s government announced the 2013 budget and austerity measures. Unfortunately sentiment was short lived once market participants received the results of the Euro Zone’s banks stress tests.

Spain’s budget announcement indicting spending cuts and tax increases in the neighbor of 13 billion Euros or roughly $16.7 billion U.S. dollar. Spain’s efforts were endorsed by European Union’s commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Olli Rehn.  Mr. Rehn went on to say that the budget “clearly targeted at some of the most pressing policy changes”.

Emerging Markets

India

Emerging markets of India will begin October will on a strong note as the NIFTY closed out the third quarter above the psychological 5700 level. Leadership was found in autos, utilities, metals and in India’s financial sectors.  ICICI Bank (IBN, quote) was a clear winner while software outsourcing firm Infosys (INFY, quote) ended the day down.  U.S. base traders can take advantage of the moves here in the U.S. through the ADRs.

Morning Coffee Break Companies To Watch

Apple (AAPL, quote) Apple releases the iPhone internationally today allowing 22 other countries to buy the popular iphone.

Research In Motion (RIMM, quote) BlackBerry earnings surprise with better than expected increase in phone sales. Pre-Market trading has RIMM up roughly 20%.

Futures and Commodities Corner

Crude Oil                    

Crude prices recovered pushing climbing back above $92 per barrel in early trading after a week of the bears being in control and on concerns over Iran’s nuclear objectives.

Fear began to filter through the energy markets on Thursday when Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu during his United Nations General Assembly speech sent fears through the markets about Iran’s plans for nuclear program.

The issue is nothing new but does pop its ugly head up every so often as Tehran says their nuclear program is peaceful while at the same time continue to threatened several times to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping lane.

Although there has been an embargo of Iranian produced oil by the Europe and United States since July has not seem to net any visible results.

Helping to move crude oil’s price higher during the Asian session was a weaker dollar.

Be sure to check out the Daily Energy Report for a compressive look at the global energy markets by Tom Pawlicki.

Equity only readers can gain exposure to WTI Crude Oil through the United States Oil Fund (USO, quote) ETF that seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The USO will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil.

Gold

Gold prices tumbled in early trading during the European trading on the last day of trading ahead of the weekend and 3rd quarter end. As electronic trading begins in the U.S. session gold bug have mustered up price to the flat line. The moves ahead of the final bit of economic data out to of the U.S. before the weekend as gold traders look for signs of economic strength to move sentiment to risk on.

Equity only readers gain exposure to the gold through the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD, quote) ETF that seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the price of gold bullion. The GLD trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets.

Crude Oil $91.89 +0.04 +0.04%
Gold $1778.00 +0.40 +0.02%
Wheat $854.50 -1.00 -0.12%
Corn $714.00 -2.25 -0.31%
Live Cattle $125.175 UNCH UNCH
Lean Hogs $73.60 UNCH UNCH
Treasury Bond 149.9062 +0.4062 +0.27%
10yr Note 133.7188 +0.2188 +0.16%
2yr Note 110.2344 UNCH UNCH
U.S. Dollar Index 79.59 UNCH UNCH
As of 8:09 a.m. ET

The Morning Coffee Break Bottom Line

Look for Euro Zone fears about Spain and Italy along with U.S. Consumer data will be driving markets. Look for profit taking early on and possible stock chasing in particular names like Apple (AAPL, quote) as large funds sprits up their portfolio.

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