Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may trade lower in the near-term, as Monday’s action failed to respond to moderately favorable developments. There was support for yesterday’s trade given by the bottom of a rising channel pattern at $86.20 and from a recovery in economic data from China and Germany. However, an uninspiring trade in the stock market and a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks added on to other
AUDUSD’s upward movement from 1.0149 extends to as high as 1.0515.
The overnight markets are all over the place, most recently collapsing from 7-8CST with beans trading down more than double digits. The meal has quickly lost $3-4, oil remains 20-30 points lower, corn is melting trading down 5-6 and wheat has drifted lower trading down 4-5 cents.
Current market conditions – The Dow Jones (DIA, quote) trading up by 0.22% to 13184.08, S&P 500 (SPY, quote) is trading lower by 0.17% to 1420.47 and the NASDAQ (QQQ, quote) is trading down by 0.41% to 2990.28.
U.S. markets are coming off a meager up week with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closes the in the green the last 3 session prior to the weekend. The NASDAQ, however, is having difficulties with its largest component Apple (AAPL, quote) continues to struggle.
This week’s trade in energies could see a mixed trend overall, but selling rallies may still be the most attractive trade at the moment. WTI will find key resistance at the 50-day moving average at $88.20 while strong support will be at the bottom of a bullish flag pattern at $86.20. A busy week is in store, as the weekend’s Chinese economic and trade data will be digested on Monday.
Current market conditions – The Dow Jones (DIA, quote) trading up by 0.21% to 13101.07, S&P 500 (SPY, quote) is trading lower by 0.10% to 1421.51 and the NASDAQ (QQQ, quote) is trading down by 0.65% to 2969.88
Natural Gas traded lower settling $3.666, down $0.034 (0.9%). The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.03. Hub cash was weaker, ~$0.20 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.40 to $3.90 as temps are running 10-15 above normal in major Northeast/Midwestern cities through Monday.
The oil market is a tough call today and could potentially rebound amid channel line support and today’s non-farm payroll report. The channel offers support at $86.10/bbl in WTI, while we think that the payroll report could be spun favorably even if it misses estimates due to superstorm Sandy.
Following the market opening Thursday, the Dow traded up 0.03 percent to 13,038.87 while the NASDAQ rose 0.37 percent to 2,984.75. The S&P also rose, increasing 0.09 percent to 1,410.48.
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