Daily Energy Report
Daily Energy Report – The oil markets may trade higher again in the near-term, however, the fundamental picture still remains somewhat weak at the moment.
Daily Energy Report – The oil markets may trade higher again in the near-term, however, the fundamental picture still remains somewhat weak at the moment.
Oil prices created an inside-day in WTI yesterday and both Brent and WTI again had trouble with their 50-day moving averages. Those technicals may offer pressure again in today’s trade, where the market will also be weighed down by continued growth in U.S. oil production, growth in oil stocks, building gasoline inventories, and generally weak demand.
Oil prices rallied nicely in yesterday’s trade but once again had trouble getting above the 50-day moving averages in WTI and Brent. Today’s trade could witness a similar disposition, as the general reaction by risk markets yesterday to “bullish” news from the Fed was to finish either lower on the day (as equities did) or significantly below the day’s highs (as energies and precious metals did).
The market appears as though it will trade to the downside in the near-term thanks to Monday’s break of key channel support and due to the inability to maintain rallies. Pressure may also come from a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks, the potential that OPEC leaves production unchanged at today’s meeting, building levels of U.S. gasoline stocks, and high levels of U.S. oil production.
U.S. stock indexes printed small gains yesterday as market participants begin to focus on the two day Federal Reserve meeting. Analysts are looking for policymakers to provide further monetary stimulus – QE4? However, the Fed watchers will also be watching for any signs of deal or lack of deal concerning the fiscal cliff.
U.S. markets are coming off a meager up week with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closes the in the green the last 3 session prior to the weekend. The NASDAQ, however, is having difficulties with its largest component Apple (AAPL, quote) continues to struggle.
The oil market is a tough call today and could potentially rebound amid channel line support and today’s non-farm payroll report. The channel offers support at $86.10/bbl in WTI, while we think that the payroll report could be spun favorably even if it misses estimates due to superstorm Sandy.
Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production.
Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production. These could take WTI down toward the $85.00/bbl level through year-end unless a fix to the
Welcomes to today’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. markets are coming of the largest single day gains since early September. Depending on which analysts have the airways the move was due to an extreme oversold condition while others point to the growing confidence in a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.
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