‘Wind down’ is not withdrawal but watch negative news flow in the US; treading water is not growth so keep the champagne on ice for Europe; price is not value so beware investor sentiment; falling unemployment is not rising employment so watch the participation rate; and a hiccup is not a correction so keep an eye on an exit…
With the first two trading days in the bag markets look to be setting up for a lower open as traders focus on Friday’s delayed non-Farm Payroll results for October.
Morning Coffee Break – Tuesday April 2 April what is thought of being a strong month historically began the month and second quarter at a slow snail pace. The Dow and the bulls have look to April as the best month of the year as far back as 1950 with an average 2.7% gain for the month.
Oil prices created an inside-day in WTI yesterday and both Brent and WTI again had trouble with their 50-day moving averages. Those technicals may offer pressure again in today’s trade, where the market will also be weighed down by continued growth in U.S. oil production, growth in oil stocks, building gasoline inventories, and generally weak demand.
This week’s trade in the oil market may witness bottoming action take place, as the U.S. election begins to move to center stage. There may also be an exit from the markets by hedge funds that close their books on Oct 31st, but the impact they actually exert may be somewhat limited in the near-term as their long positioning has already been reduced.
Welcome to Monday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. markets started the 4th quarter on uneven footing last week that somehow managed to pull off a positive week with the Dow Jones sitting at its best level since December 2007.
Breaking news – non-Farm Payroll
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