Difficult to believe that until recently the US dollar (UUP, quote) was being written off by all and sundry, with some even suggesting that its days as the currency of first reserve were numbered. Many were calling for the Yuan to replace it, and even the euro in its current iteration. Others suggested a basket of currencies. How times have changed.
As the currency markets pause ahead of the monthly Non Farm Payroll release due later, I thought it would be a good time to revisit the weekly futures charts for some of the major currency pairs, and to step back a little, following a week of significant news items around the world. This helps to contextualize the NFP data, which whilst important, is simply another release in the economic calendar.
With another trading week over, and Non Farm Payroll having come and gone for another month, markets in general are now looking forward, as the minor reversal in the US dollar’s unstoppable progress appears to have simply been a temporary pause and reaction to the worse than expected employment data.
USDJPY is currently in a new uptrend but this has yet to be established, as the pair is making an attempt to test the rising trend line on the 4-hour time frame.
Option Alert Service Signal New Trade Suggestion
Whilst as traders and people, we all tend to make New Year resolutions. The market however seems set to continue in the same vein as in 2013, with the primary focus remaining the constant debate of tapering, and as I have said before, what I call ‘tweaking’.
The EUR/USD pair went back and forth on Tuesday, ultimately settling into a slightly negative candle.
Breaking news – non-Farm Payroll
Welcome to Wednesday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. markets start the third session of the week after two straight days of uneven trading. One positive take away from yesterday’s session was the break in the final hour sell off that has persists the last few weeks.
Most of the major currency pairs continue to show significant correlations with the MSCI World Stock Index, suggesting that broad-based risk appetite trends remain dominant as drivers of price action. This puts thematic macro-level concerns – specifically, the durability of the US recovery and its ability to offset headwinds from Europe and China facing global growth – squarely at the forefront. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet, with headline event risk clustered at the end of the week as PPI and UofM Consumer Confidence readings cross the wires on Friday. This puts the onus on evaluating the extent of downward pressure.
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