Are you looking for an easy way to improve your confidence as you analyze the charts you trade? Take a quick look at this chart (adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy’s December 26 Elliott Wave Junctures lesson) to see how divergence relationships help clarify your analysis.
Natural Gas traded lower, settling $3.233 down $0.118 (3.9%). The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.05, J13/V13 $0.02 weaker, V13/F13 out $0.01. Hub cash was firmer, ~$0.03 back this morning, Z-6 fell to $9.80 from $16.88 Monday.
Oil prices could continue higher over the next week or so, but we’re cautious about the possibility that yesterday’s rally has difficulty being maintained. The market may gain support from signs of improved economic conditions following PMI data in China and the U.S., the breakout in S&Ps to 2 1/2 month highs, signs of fund buying in COT data, and the military exercises being conducted by Iran
EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.2661, the fall from 1.3308 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Deeper decline would likely be seen, and the target would be at 1.3100 area.
USDCAD stays above a upward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 0.9824. Support is at the uptrend line, as long as the trend line support holds, the fall from 0.9953 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend, and another rise to 0.9970 is still possible.
2013 Energy Outlook – Despite the relatively sideways trading range and declining volatility that the last few months of 2012 has brought the oil markets, underlying developments have remained fairly dynamic. The November election in the U.S. and change of power in China
Monday’s trade fell sharply and in stark contrast to the strong rally that was witnessed on Thursday. The focus was on forecasts for temperatures that did not show any more cold than what was seen on Friday, and actually warmed slightly.
The sharp drop in energy markets on Friday was a demonstration of the influence that economic issues in Washington can exert on oil prices. Near-term trading direction will thus be influenced one way or the other by what happens with fiscal cliff negotiations over the weekend and between the Christmas and New Year’s holidays
Merry Christmas
It’s difficult to say that yesterday’s rally and breakout above the 50-day MA in WTI and Brent will create an environment of bullish euphoria in the near-term, because the same conditions have played themselves out several times in the last two months.
