Frozen

Frozen, the movie made a fortune for Walt Disney (DIS, quote), and yes I did watch it, and listened to a young girl sing the song...a lot.

We have all heard the Greek (GREK, quote) Story these past few weeks if not longer, and this weekend we will find out if this slow train wreck which is currently in stop motion will crash out of the euro currency or be kept in the fold, by some financial gymnastics. Either way the Eurocrats tell us that they have a credible plan and can handle a Grexit. Investors and traders may remember soothing words about subprime, and feel it best to stand still and wait. Chilling news from China (FXI, quote), indeed a true ice age for stock investors as a large portion of stocks are halted, and significant amounts of shares are locked up for six months. Similar strategies were employed in us and European stock markets in 2008/2009.

The World Economy, which had been going through a nice temperate climate (mild at best), now seems a bit chillier, pseudo government agencies with 3 letters continue to be aggressively active beyond their mandates. One could argue that it’s their actions that has led the economy off course, back into areas filled with icebergs of debt.

Companies are merging, and buying back stock at an enormous pace over the last year, buffering themselves against the inevitable innovation that time brings, along with the rockiness of increased regulation and taxes to pay for sovereign debt. Mergers in key areas of insurance, pharma, energies, agriculture and perhaps autos may signal the beginning of stagflation. Bonds may be telling us this over the last quarter, certainly stock indexes are beginning to come to a halt. Labor worldwide wants a bigger slice of the pie the participation rate has that nostalgic look of that 70’s (Archie Bunker = UBER).

For this week, we are all a bit frozen waiting for the wind to change. Here in California we await the much needed El Nino to bring rain. Agricultural traders may remember the El Nino of the 70's. The music is different but events have that familiar ring. China (Nixon opening) Greece (74), refugees (Vietnam), the rise of Japan, and conflicts in the Middle East. Many other events today are similar to ones in the past, gold got replaced as a standard then, wonder what the three letters will decide to replace soon?

Let me know what you think. Contact me if you want some trading ideas