The oil market appears to be locked in a sideways continuation pattern, however, the timing of a potential breakout may still hinge upon the trading floors opening for normal operations. The CME said late yesterday that Nymex floor trading would resume only when the city lifts its evacuation order for Zone A.
Grains Commentary – Published Monday morning, 10/29/12 The effects of Sandy are creating havoc across the entire East Coast and could have effects for the next 72 hours if not longer, in the meantime the grain markets are open and it appears that $ flow is leaving the soy markets and shifting back to grains with corn trading +3-4, wheat has gained 4-5, while beans are down 12-14, meal
The overnight markets have continued where yesterday left off with gains being posted in nearly every market. The grain market seem to be gaining some interest again as the equity markets have lost nearly 4% in the past week, this lowers the overall bench market of returns for the year and gives some more runway to trade and place risk back on knowing that the equity benchmark is now up 11% rather than 15%.
This week’s trade in the oil market may witness bottoming action take place, as the U.S. election begins to move to center stage. There may also be an exit from the markets by hedge funds that close their books on Oct 31st, but the impact they actually exert may be somewhat limited in the near-term as their long positioning has already been reduced.
The oil market stabilized its short-term selloff yesterday and rebounded slightly, but evidence is unclear as to whether a bottom has been formed. The action was not typical of a bottom, as volumes appeared to be light and fresh economic data was mixed.
The overnight markets have continued where yesterday left off with gains being posted in nearly every market. The grain market seem to be gaining some interest again as the equity markets have lost nearly 4% in the past week, this lowers the overall bench market of returns for the year and gives some more runway to trade and place risk back on knowing that the equity benchmark is now up 11% rather than 15%.
The oil market may continue its short-term correction in the near-term, but it’s also entering a support range between
$81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs exited the market during Monday’s session.
Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.535 up $0.083 2.6%. The curve was firmer, 13/16 $0.02 better. Hub cash was stronger, ~$0.12 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.10 to $3.50. The 12z was in line w/ overnight models, showing mostly cooler temps Eastern U.S. during the 6-10 day (Northern Plains came in slightly warmer).
Oil prices may continue their short-term correction over the next few days, with support in WTI offered between $81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs have exited the market. A focus will be on the FOMC announcement today, but little change in policy is expected after the last meeting’s implementation of QE3.
It’s a new day and a new week and after last week’s dismal start to market sentiment and price activity the markets actually finished the week higher vs. the previous week and is continuing the momentum this morning.
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