The oil market may remain in a mixed trend in the near-term as it has in the last three sessions, with underlying factors somewhat balanced. Recent support has been given by improved signs of economic growth, COT data, the grounding of Shell’s oil rig in Alaska, and the ramp-up of the expanded Seaway pipeline this week. Environmental groups have already called on the president to suspend drilling permits in the Arctic
Tuesday’s January 8th, 2012 FOREX Market Daily Analysis
Monday January 7th Daily FOREX Market Analysis
The short-term trend of the energy markets has been on the upside for nearly a month now, but prices are approaching levels that have traditionally caused problems for rallies. The weekly chart below suggests that WTI may be able reach the falling trendline near $101/bbl without creating any appearance of excess, however, demand would then become a concern as rationing will eventually return
Our view of the oil markets is generally unchanged today from the outlook we made yesterday. Prices could continue higher over the next week or so, but we remain cautious about the ability of the rally being maintained.
AUDUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.0527 on 4-hour chart. Pullback to 1.0420 area would likely be seen. Key support is at 1.0344, as long as this level holds, the fall could be treated as correction of the uptrend from 1.0344, another rise to test 1.0585 resistance is still possible
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Natural Gas traded lower, settling $3.233 down $0.118 (3.9%). The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.05, J13/V13 $0.02 weaker, V13/F13 out $0.01. Hub cash was firmer, ~$0.03 back this morning, Z-6 fell to $9.80 from $16.88 Monday.
Oil prices could continue higher over the next week or so, but we’re cautious about the possibility that yesterday’s rally has difficulty being maintained. The market may gain support from signs of improved economic conditions following PMI data in China and the U.S., the breakout in S&Ps to 2 1/2 month highs, signs of fund buying in COT data, and the military exercises being conducted by Iran
EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.2661, the fall from 1.3308 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Deeper decline would likely be seen, and the target would be at 1.3100 area.
