The oil market stabilized its short-term selloff yesterday and rebounded slightly, but evidence is unclear as to whether a bottom has been formed. The action was not typical of a bottom, as volumes appeared to be light and fresh economic data was mixed.
The oil market may continue its short-term correction in the near-term, but it’s also entering a support range between
$81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs exited the market during Monday’s session.
Breaking News – Crude Oil Inventories
Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.535 up $0.083 2.6%. The curve was firmer, 13/16 $0.02 better. Hub cash was stronger, ~$0.12 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.10 to $3.50. The 12z was in line w/ overnight models, showing mostly cooler temps Eastern U.S. during the 6-10 day (Northern Plains came in slightly warmer).
Oil prices may continue their short-term correction over the next few days, with support in WTI offered between $81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs have exited the market. A focus will be on the FOMC announcement today, but little change in policy is expected after the last meeting’s implementation of QE3.
Welcome to Monday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. futures are suggesting a positive open this morning after Friday’s sharpest one day drop in nearly four months. Market participants will be starting the week off with no economic data releases putting the focus on earnings and U.S. politics. Headlines in the Euro Zone will have a stronger impact on U.S. markets as well.
Welcome to Friday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. equity futures are suggesting lower open on final session of the week, weak Google (GOOG, quote) results dampened investor expectations for the remaining earnings season, especially those names in the tech sector.
Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.47, up $0.033 0.9%. The curve was mostly firmer (outside of X/F $0.027 weaker, UNG concludes tomorrow), J13/F14 $0.017 firmer, 14/16 little changed. J13/F14 -$0.528 approaching highs ~$-0.52 (charts/seasonality below). Hub cash was ~$0.19 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.05 to $3.40.
Natural Gas traded lower, settling $3.437 down $0.049 (1.4%). The curve was mixed, (X/Z $0.045 lower as the UNG roll continues through Thursday, H13/J13 $0.005 weaker, J13/V13 $0.005 firmer), 13/16 was $0.03 firmer. Hub cash was ~$0.17 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.05 to $3.45.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Morning Coffee Break – Yesterday’s rally of triple digits on the Dow Jones Industrial and over 14 points in the S&P 500 has put U.S. markets back in the green for the month of October, just 8 session before Friday’s 25th anniversary of the 1987 stock crash.
