The overnight market seems to continue to digest the ideas that the yields are still coming in above expectations and that the USDA figures will show significant increases. The beans have eased back by 10-13 cents most of the evening session, meal has lost $4, oil is down 25-30 points, and corn fell by another 5-7 while wheat is standing alone trading on the positive side gaining 2-4 cents.
The music seems as if it is starting to play again as once again the export sales remind us that the world is running out of beans. The beans now have erased all the losses of earlier in the week trading +30, meal has gained $7, oil increased by
30 points, corn increased by 6-8 and wheat has posted gains of 4-5 cents
The overnight trade continues to show that margins are causing $ flow to exit the building as frustration seems to be taking over. The beans have lost double digits again, meal fell by nearly $5, corn gave back 6-8 cents, and wheat has lost 7-8 while bean oil is the shining star trading on the positive side by 3 points.
The S&P is up over 14% on the year, $ follows $ and the world loves equities over nearly everything else, is it any surprise to see a surge in equities yesterday while grains get punished and it happened to be the 1st day of the new quarter?
The overnight markets have attempted once again to recover from some of the punches it has taken in the gut over the past few weeks. It’s amazing to look back at seasonal trades and think “why didn’t I respond to what history has taught me”? One of the biggest seasonal trades in grains is to sell the market through September, this has been no different yet on September 1st the perception was that this year is different. Well if we look back at history again there is typically a quick 50% retracement of the September losses during the first few weeks of October.
