In previous months, these pages have warned of slowing global growth and cited crude as the leading indicator. Crude plummeted nearly 18% in May compared with just a little over a 6% decline in the S&P 500. Reitterating the stance that crude is the leader (the ‘tell’ if you will) in the next wave of develeveraging, equities probably have much more downside in the coming months.
Any way you cut it, the dollar’s recent performance is impressive. So far this month, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has climbed 1.9 percent to its highest weekly close since the middle of December. Looking at currency’s performance in specific corners of the market, we find the EURUSD is below 1.3000, AUDUSD is at its lowest level this year and the greenback has even been able to muscle gold (another safe haven) into a potentially critical reversal of a trend that goes back over three years.
USDCHF – Our Speculative Sentiment Index shows that retail trading crowds remain net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Swiss Franc. Normally this would lead us to call for near-term losses. Yet the USDCHF remains stuck in a frustratingly narrow range, and only a break below SFr 0.9000 would signal that fresh lows are entirely likely. As it stands most are watching for clues that the Swiss National Bank
Dollar Slips after Fed Forecasts Turn Slightly More Hawkish? British Pound Resilient Despite Double Dip Recession New Zealand Dollar Advances after RBNZ’s Slightly More Dovish Tack Japanese Yen Gains Despite Positive Risk Sentiment Euro: ECB President Draghi Eases His Inflation Tone Canadian Dollar Looking to Capitalize on Break to 7-Month High Gold Recovers from Yet Another Early Fall Thanks to the Dollar Dollar Slips after Fed Forecasts Turn Slightly More
THE TAKEAWAY: RBNZ holds rates at 2.50% > RBNZ wait-and-see approach contrasts with RBA’s dovish bias > Kiwi strengthens
Euro reverses course in early weekly trade Softer round of Eurozone PMIs weigh heavily on risk appetite Global equities also trade with heavy tone US Dollar and Japanese Yen prime beneficiaries Eurozone sovereign debt highest since Euro established Currencies were under pressure for the entire European session, with the safe haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen benefitting from the risk off trade. The pullback in the Euro has been quite
