For longer term traders in YM futures, the index in April has continued the pattern of trading that we saw during the second half of March, with the Emini contract trading in a tight range, closing the week following the NFP data, at 14,484, and back in this area once again.
Breaking news – non-Farm Payroll
Welcome to Friday’s Morning Coffee Break – As market participants prepare for the final session of week and as traders prepare to close out the first week of the 4th quarter traders find the markets walking a thin line. As of yesterday’s close U.S. markets appear to be on track for their first positive week in 3 weeks. However, as the aforementioned thin line markets could swing to either side
U.S. auto manufactures continues to improve with all U.S. manufactures posting double digit sales gains for the month of May although shy of analyst’s expectations. Ford Motor Company [F, $[stock F] sales rose 21% for the month of May falling short of both Barclays and Edmunds.com expectations.
Gold was sharply higher at the close of trade this week with the precious metal surging 3.87% to close at $1622.75 in New York. The rally marks the largest single week advance since the week ending January 27th when prices soared by more than 4.4% as it approached the $1740 level
In previous months, these pages have warned of slowing global growth and cited crude as the leading indicator. Crude plummeted nearly 18% in May compared with just a little over a 6% decline in the S&P 500. Reitterating the stance that crude is the leader (the ‘tell’ if you will) in the next wave of develeveraging, equities probably have much more downside in the coming months.
Most of the major currency pairs continue to show significant correlations with the MSCI World Stock Index, suggesting that broad-based risk appetite trends remain dominant as drivers of price action. This puts thematic macro-level concerns – specifically, the durability of the US recovery and its ability to offset headwinds from Europe and China facing global growth – squarely at the forefront. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet, with headline event risk clustered at the end of the week as PPI and UofM Consumer Confidence readings cross the wires on Friday. This puts the onus on evaluating the extent of downward pressure.
The ongoing political turmoil in Europe continues to shake the markets, with the inability for Greece to form a government now fueling speculation that the country might soon exit the Eurozone. Although an exit by Greece would have only a minimal impact on the broader economy, given the country’s size, fears of contagion seem to be the bigger problem right now, as investors start to price in the impact this will have on larger economies like Spain and Italy.
Euro: French, Greek Elections Raises Risk For Breakup – 1.3000 Crucial British Pound: Correction In Focus, BoE To Discuss Exit Strategy Euro: French, Greek Elections Raises Risk For Breakup – 1.3000 Crucial The Euro tumbled to a fresh monthly low of 1.2954 as French President Francois Hollande overtook Nicolas Sarkozy as the president of France, while the two main parties in Greece failed to obtain a joint majority, and the
Non-Farm Payrolls rise less than expected.
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