DailyBars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT The EURUSD rally failed between former supports at 13250 and 13275. The level is reinforced by the underside of former trendline support as well. Nothing has changed from a trend standpoint as the rally from 12994 is slow, overlapping, and shows no impulsive characteristics. 13170 and 13104 are supports for Friday. Bottom Line (next 5 days): topped and lower?
USDCHF – Our Speculative Sentiment Index shows that retail trading crowds remain net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Swiss Franc. Normally this would lead us to call for near-term losses. Yet the USDCHF remains stuck in a frustratingly narrow range, and only a break below SFr 0.9000 would signal that fresh lows are entirely likely. As it stands most are watching for clues that the Swiss National Bank
Dollar Slips after Fed Forecasts Turn Slightly More Hawkish? British Pound Resilient Despite Double Dip Recession New Zealand Dollar Advances after RBNZ’s Slightly More Dovish Tack Japanese Yen Gains Despite Positive Risk Sentiment Euro: ECB President Draghi Eases His Inflation Tone Canadian Dollar Looking to Capitalize on Break to 7-Month High Gold Recovers from Yet Another Early Fall Thanks to the Dollar Dollar Slips after Fed Forecasts Turn Slightly More
The greenback is softer at the close of North American trade with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) off by 0.18% on the session. The FOMC interest rate decision was central focus today with the central bank maintaining its pledge to keep rates anchored through 2014 while giving a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economy. The Fed raised its 2012 growth forecast to 2.4%-2.9% from
THE TAKEAWAY: RBNZ holds rates at 2.50% > RBNZ wait-and-see approach contrasts with RBA’s dovish bias > Kiwi strengthens
Daily Winners and Losers The Canadian dollar is the top performing currency against the greenback ahead of the European close with an advance of 0.23% on the session. Broader risk appetite has been well supported ahead of today’s key FOMC interest rate decision with the higher yielding commodity currencies advancing in early US trade. Remarks made by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have continued to support the loonie with
Euro remains very well supported on dips Retail positioning still looking for USD strength Cable and Cad SSI ratios stand out and warn of more USD weakness UK GDP data much softer; opens intraday underperformance in Pound Key event risk later today in the form of the FOMC rate decision We have yet to see any real justification for the latest Euro rally, but at the same time, would not
THE TAKEAWAY: Negative UK GDP growth in Q1 2012 -> Sterling under pressure as data diminishes confidence Great Britain’s Gross Domestic Product contracted in the first quarter, pushing the UK into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s. The report is expected to increase pressure on UK officials, most important PM David Cameron who has faced criticism for promoting austerity instead of government stimulus.
The EURGBP continues to have a strong April moving steadily in a downtrend. Through today’s trading, the pair has moved as much as 214 pips lower from its monthly high at .8357.
Euro reverses course in early weekly trade Softer round of Eurozone PMIs weigh heavily on risk appetite Global equities also trade with heavy tone US Dollar and Japanese Yen prime beneficiaries Eurozone sovereign debt highest since Euro established Currencies were under pressure for the entire European session, with the safe haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen benefitting from the risk off trade. The pullback in the Euro has been quite
