This morning’s IEA supply report has suggested demand would remains weak into 2017, and with a downward revision to its demand forecast, this has added a bearish tone to oil prices once again, with the WTI contract for October trading lower at $45.27 at time of writing. The IEA see the forecast for 2016 falling by 100k bpd to 1.3 mln bpd.
Over the past week and a half, crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster ride. Within the large ranges, the force of gravity has generally worked against bullish speculators after the 3-week rally ended in mid-August when Brent hit $51 and WTI reached $49 a barrel again.
Oil prices swung wildly into the positive territory yesterday. The rally eventually came to a halt around the $50 handle for Brent and $48 for WTI, and both contracts have been trending lower from these levels until an hour or so ago.
This week saw data from the UK surprise positively and the severally-oversold pound bounced back sharply, while the dollar fell across the board as the Fed watered down rate hike expectations in the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting and after some weakness in US data was observed, causing the EUR/USD to climb to its best level since 24 June.
The longer term recovery for oil which peaked in the $52 per barrel area last month, is now reversing once more and picking up bearish momentum ahead of the weekly oil inventories due for release later today, as both the technical and fundamental picture help to drive prices lower once again.
For longer term traders and investors in oil, as we come to the end of another month with the latest weekly oil inventories now posted, it is once again the weekly and monthly charts that provide insight and context for the future trends.
The word that comes to mind to describe the price action on the daily WTI oil chart is ‘stately’ with crude oil continuing to move higher in a series of small rallies then punctuated with a pause point and further consolidation.
When considering such as bearish chart as for crude oil, it’s interesting to play a mind game and consider it as perhaps a stock chart – an Enron or a Worldcom, and the prospect of oil going to zero.
These are interesting times for oil traders and speculators with Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna now on the horizon, and the question that will then be answered is whether the group will cut output to stem the supply glut that is now increasingly having to be held offshore around the oceans of the world.
One of the many factors used to decide whether a central bank should or should not raise interest rates is inflation, of which energy is a main contributor, and given the extended bearish trend for oil prices at present this aspect of the decision making process is likely to remain sharply in focus.
