Natural Gas Commentary

Published Tuesday afternoon, 11/13/12

 

Natural Gas traded sharply higher settling $3.739 up $0.169, 4.5%. The curve was much firmer 13/17 $0.09 tighter. Hub cash was firmer, ~$0.11 back this morning, Z-6 up $0.30 to $4.00. Algonquin traded up to $8.75 this morning, highest spot price of the year. The 12z was in line with overnight runs showing mostly above average temperatures across the nation during the 6-10 day.  The 11-15 day was significantly cooler Eastern U.S. during the 11-15 day and warmer West. Thursday we estimate a withdrawal ~15 Bcf, bullish against last year’s 12 Bcf injection and the 5-yr average 21 Bcf injection.

 

Vol was firmer through G12 and little changed beyond: (Z12 375 20.00 21.00 37.80% 0.37% F13 385 37.00 38.50 35.43% 0.66% G13 385 49.00 50.50 35.32% 0.46% H13 385 56.00 58.00 34.67% -0.13% J13 380 59.00 61.00 32.88% -0.09% K13 385 64.50 66.50 31.98% 0.07% M13 390 69.50 71.50 31.03% -0.02% N13 390 73.50 75.50 30.71% -0.11% Q13 395 79.00 81.00 30.55% -0.16% U13 395 84.50 86.50 30.82% -0.23% V13 395 91.00 93.00 31.64% 0.29% X13 410 92.50 94.50 29.50% -0.26% Z13 425 93.50 95.50 27.69% 0.12%). Technically we are neutral, we look for $3.82 to be re-tested. Resistance is found at $3.82, $3.98. On the downside we see support at $3.65, $3.58, $3.50, $3.43, $3.36.

 

 

 

Editor’s Note: Natural Gas Commentary readers who are equity investors/traders only can gain access to the Natural Gas space through the following exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Natural Gas

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG, quote)

United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL, quote)

First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG, quote)

 

IMPORTANT NOTICE:  Trading of commodities and commodity futures and options, and other commodity derivatives has substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable or appropriate for all persons.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  The information in this piece is based on sources that are believed to be reliable, but it is not warranted to be accurate or complete, and no performance or results from use of the information are warranted.  This piece is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities or commodity derivatives. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

 

 

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