Let me start this analysis for oil, by highlighting an issue which I always find deeply ironic which is this – when oil prices rise quickly, a hue and cry results with the ‘evil’ speculators blamed who quickly become public enemy number one.
It’s been a month of congestion and consolidation for crude oil prices, with the commodity driven by a variety of forces, but as we approach the start of October, the market now appears to be building some momentum in preparation of an imminent breakout. However, much will depend on the deep areas of price resistance now directly ahead.
Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) remained below $97 on Thursday as the growing supply glut continued to outweigh concerns about the conflict in the Middle East.
Oil traders hoping for a slow down in the bearish trend, to enjoy a relaxing weekend away from the screens, may have been tripped up by the Chinese (FXI, quote) data which slipped out on Saturday, with industrial production coming in at 6.9% against a forecast of 8.8%, missing the forecast by some distance, and whipping up the perfect storm.
The short term rally for crude oil, came to a shuddering halt yesterday, as the December WTI futures (USO, quote) contract closed at $92.88 per barrel, having shed over $3 per barrel on the day, closing as a wide spread down candle on the daily chart.
